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Essex, MA · ZIP 01844 · Census Tract 25009252603 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$585K
Downside (P10)
$478K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$604K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$834K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $330K | $339K | $353K | $356K | $410K | $420K | $467K | $538K | $572K | $585K | $586K | $586K | $604K |
| YoY Change | +3.7% | +2.5% | +4.1% | +1.0% | +15.1% | +2.5% | +11.3% | +15.0% | +6.4% | +2.2% | +0.2% | +0.0% | +3.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $504K | $490K | $478K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $767K | $794K | $834K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$504K to $767K
44.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$478K to $834K
59.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methuen Town | $579K | $604K | +4.2% | |
| Lawrence | $585K | $668K | +14.2% | |
| Saugus | $591K | $673K | +13.7% | |
| Peabody (Tract 210600) | $577K | $657K | +13.7% | |
| Peabody (Tract 210900) | $592K | $645K | +9.0% | |
| Salem | $585K | $632K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methuen Town | $579K | $604K | +4.2% | |
| Saugus | $629K | $758K | +20.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 251600) | $452K | $545K | +20.5% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 250800) | $365K | $434K | +19.0% | |
| Rockport | $784K | $927K | +18.2% | |
| Danvers | $709K | $834K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methuen Town | $579K | $604K | $356K | |
| Amesbury Town | $502K | $507K | $215K | |
| Danvers | $601K | $607K | $193K | |
| Haverhill | $381K | $391K | $156K | |
| Lynn | $336K | $358K | $148K | |
| Lawrence | $241K | $250K | $122K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.