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Anne Arundel, MD · ZIP 21144 · Census Tract 24003740105 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$488K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$526K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$626K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $274K | $286K | $319K | $354K | $356K | $383K | $384K | $432K | $461K | $470K | $488K | $491K | $508K | $526K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$213,634 | -$202,034 | -$169,134 | -$134,134 | -$131,334 | -$105,134 | -$103,934 | -$55,634 | -$26,634 | -$17,734 | +$3,284 | +$20,200 | +$38,538 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.8% | -41.4% | -34.7% | -27.5% | -26.9% | -21.6% | -21.3% | -11.4% | -5.5% | -3.6% | +0.7% | +4.1% | +7.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $452K | $452K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $561K | $610K | $626K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained, though uncertainty still widens modestly deeper into the horizon.
Near-term band
$452K to $561K
22.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $626K
36.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | +10.0% | |
| Arnold (Tract 731104) | $493K | $567K | +15.1% | |
| Edgewater | $486K | $559K | +14.9% | |
| Severn | $488K | $554K | +13.4% | |
| Arnold (Tract 731106) | $496K | $553K | +11.5% | |
| Cape St. Claire | $487K | $501K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | +10.0% | |
| Severna Park | $649K | $821K | +26.5% | |
| 4 | $383K | $464K | +21.3% | |
| Glen Burnie | $374K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Fort Meade | $591K | $701K | +18.5% | |
| Maryland City | $417K | $492K | +18.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | $194K | |
| Ferndale | $255K | $274K | $148K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750204) | $317K | $340K | $145K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 730513) | $288K | $311K | $143K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 751102) | $251K | $255K | $122K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750102) | $198K | $213K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Anne Arundel, MD · ZIP 21144 · Census Tract 24003740105 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$488K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$526K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$626K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $274K | $286K | $319K | $354K | $356K | $383K | $384K | $432K | $461K | $470K | $488K | $491K | $508K | $526K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$213,634 | -$202,034 | -$169,134 | -$134,134 | -$131,334 | -$105,134 | -$103,934 | -$55,634 | -$26,634 | -$17,734 | +$3,284 | +$20,200 | +$38,538 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.8% | -41.4% | -34.7% | -27.5% | -26.9% | -21.6% | -21.3% | -11.4% | -5.5% | -3.6% | +0.7% | +4.1% | +7.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $452K | $452K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $561K | $610K | $626K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained, though uncertainty still widens modestly deeper into the horizon.
Near-term band
$452K to $561K
22.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $626K
36.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | +10.0% | |
| Arnold (Tract 731104) | $493K | $567K | +15.1% | |
| Edgewater | $486K | $559K | +14.9% | |
| Severn | $488K | $554K | +13.4% | |
| Arnold (Tract 731106) | $496K | $553K | +11.5% | |
| Cape St. Claire | $487K | $501K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | +10.0% | |
| Severna Park | $649K | $821K | +26.5% | |
| 4 | $383K | $464K | +21.3% | |
| Glen Burnie | $374K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Fort Meade | $591K | $701K | +18.5% | |
| Maryland City | $417K | $492K | +18.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severn | $478K | $526K | $194K | |
| Ferndale | $255K | $274K | $148K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750204) | $317K | $340K | $145K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 730513) | $288K | $311K | $143K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 751102) | $251K | $255K | $122K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750102) | $198K | $213K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
