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County 24200, MD · Census Tract 24200001021 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$359K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$483K
+34% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$708K
+97% by 2030
Base case: +34% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +97%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $359K | $383K | $407K | $438K | $483K |
| YoY Change | +6.6% | +6.1% | +7.8% | +10.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $296K | $298K | $298K | $317K | |
| Upside (P90) | $492K | $561K | $599K | $708K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$296K to $492K
51.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$317K to $708K
80.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001021 | $359K | $483K | +34.4% | |
| Tract 000064 | $362K | $487K | +34.3% | |
| Tract 000187 | $365K | $473K | +29.8% | |
| Tract 001762 | $358K | $455K | +27.1% | |
| Tract 001649 | $364K | $453K | +24.5% | |
| Tract 000307 | $357K | $444K | +24.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001021 | $359K | $483K | +34.4% | |
| Tract 402167 | $1.07M | $1.67M | +57.1% | |
| Tract 003362 | $459K | $721K | +57.1% | |
| Tract 402442 | $696K | $1.09M | +56.4% | |
| Tract 402028 | $1.04M | $1.57M | +51.1% | |
| Tract 402426 | $741K | $1.10M | +49.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001021 | $359K | $483K | $391K | |
| Tract 004604 | $462K | $638K | $355K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources