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County 24207, MD · Census Tract 24207501281 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$209K
Downside (P10)
$192K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$335K
+61% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$542K
+160% by 2030
Base case: +61% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +160%. The model forecasts this with 43% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $209K | $250K | $270K | $288K | $335K |
| YoY Change | +19.7% | +8.0% | +6.8% | +16.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $181K | $177K | $192K | |
| Upside (P90) | $334K | $385K | $451K | $542K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$191K to $334K
57.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$192K to $542K
104.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 501281 | $209K | $335K | +60.7% | |
| Tract 502604 | $199K | $317K | +59.3% | |
| Tract 500884 | $192K | $304K | +58.5% | |
| Tract 502549 | $203K | $293K | +44.3% | |
| Tract 502222 | $196K | $268K | +36.8% | |
| Tract 500486 | $200K | $263K | +31.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 501281 | $209K | $335K | +60.7% | |
| Tract 200427 | $290K | $586K | +102.1% | |
| Tract 202467 | $301K | $584K | +94.2% | |
| Tract 202386 | $272K | $519K | +90.8% | |
| Tract 201002 | $283K | $537K | +89.7% | |
| Tract 202506 | $268K | $507K | +89.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 501281 | $209K | $335K | $350K | |
| Tract 203864 | $290K | $342K | $174K | |
| Tract 203848 | $292K | $367K | $172K | |
| Tract 204326 | $282K | $353K | $166K | |
| Tract 203945 | $250K | $319K | $164K | |
| Tract 203767 | $255K | $318K | $149K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources