County 24365, MD · Census Tract 24365000857 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.26M
Downside (P10)
$577K
-54% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.03M
-18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.75M
+39% by 2030
Base case: -18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -54% to +39%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 24365 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | -11.0% | -9.0% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $727K | $655K | $559K | $577K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$907K to $1.66M
59.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$577K to $1.75M
113.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000255 | $1.24M | $945K | -24.0% |
| Tract 000378 | $1.23M | $970K | -21.3% |
| Tract 000954 | $1.23M | $1.01M | -17.2% |
| Tract 000679 | $1.22M | $912K | -25.2% |
| Tract 001212 | $1.21M | $1.08M | -10.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001115 | $902K | $830K | -8.0% |
| Tract 001050 | $915K | $840K | -8.2% |
| Tract 001212 | $1.21M | $1.08M | -10.5% |
| Tract 000239 | $1.16M | $1.00M | -13.7% |
| Tract 000352 | $1.15M | $961K | -16.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000255 | $1.24M | $945K | $969K |
| Tract 000378 | $1.23M | $970K | $973K |
| Tract 000954 | $1.23M | $1.01M | $980K |
| Tract 000679 | $1.22M | $912K | $1.09M |
| Tract 001115 | $902K | $830K | $1.12M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources