County 24195, MD · Census Tract 24195001123 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$337K
Downside (P10)
$283K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$425K
+26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$640K
+90% by 2030
Base case: +26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +90%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 24195 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $337K | $376K | $373K | $382K | $425K |
| YoY Change | +11.6% | -0.9% | +2.5% | +11.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $289K | $283K | $288K | $283K | |
| Upside (P90) | $468K | $509K | $555K | $640K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$290K to $409K
35.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$283K to $640K
83.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000027 | $338K | $446K | +32.0% |
| Tract 000182 | $340K | $413K | +21.3% |
| Tract 001288 | $334K | $453K | +35.6% |
| Tract 000166 | $333K | $437K | +31.2% |
| Tract 001149 | $342K | $453K | +32.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000768 | $285K | $419K | +47.1% |
| Tract 001327 | $287K | $415K | +44.5% |
| Tract 001482 | $285K | $410K | +43.7% |
| Tract 001903 | $294K | $420K | +42.7% |
| Tract 001644 | $288K | $410K | +42.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001408 | $286K | $389K | $282K |
| Tract 000360 | $285K | $381K | $296K |
| Tract 001220 | $313K | $412K | $302K |
| Tract 001262 | $284K | $391K | $306K |
| Tract 000904 | $321K | $423K | $313K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources