County 24769, MD · Census Tract 24769904821 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$720K
Downside (P10)
$306K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$621K
-14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.11M
+54% by 2030
Base case: -14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +54%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 24769 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $720K | $759K | $652K | $623K | $621K |
| YoY Change | +5.5% | -14.1% | -4.5% | -0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $459K | $357K | $298K | $306K | |
| Upside (P90) | $981K | $1.1M | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$563K to $934K
51.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$306K to $1.11M
128.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 904986 | $724K | $670K | -7.4% |
| Tract 905163 | $734K | $879K | +19.7% |
| Tract 905422 | $695K | $724K | +4.2% |
| Tract 905668 | $746K | $670K | -10.2% |
| Tract 905642 | $690K | $607K | -12.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 906609 | $654K | $835K | +27.6% |
| Tract 905066 | $610K | $734K | +20.4% |
| Tract 905163 | $734K | $879K | +19.7% |
| Tract 906421 | $640K | $758K | +18.5% |
| Tract 906405 | $787K | $926K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000547 | $2.62M | $2.10M | $544K |
| Tract 906421 | $640K | $758K | $591K |
| Tract 000246 | $2.78M | $2.31M | $595K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources