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Frederick, MD · ZIP 21780 · Census Tract 24021752900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$438K
Downside (P10)
$362K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$464K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$592K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $228K | $243K | $248K | $273K | $297K | $319K | $335K | $380K | $391K | $409K | $438K | $434K | $468K | $464K |
| YoY Change | +6.6% | +2.1% | +9.7% | +9.0% | +7.4% | +4.9% | +13.4% | +3.0% | +4.5% | +7.1% | -0.9% | +7.9% | -0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $375K | $368K | $362K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $495K | $541K | $592K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$375K to $495K
27.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$362K to $592K
49.7% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources