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Frederick, MD · ZIP 21703 · Census Tract 24021751001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$458K
Downside (P10)
$397K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$506K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$617K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $237K | $231K | $240K | $255K | $261K | $270K | $293K | $377K | $410K | $449K | $458K | $471K | $480K | $506K |
| YoY Change | -2.2% | +3.9% | +5.9% | +2.4% | +3.7% | +8.5% | +28.4% | +8.8% | +9.5% | +2.1% | +2.8% | +1.9% | +5.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $418K | $416K | $397K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $540K | $583K | $617K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$418K to $540K
25.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$397K to $617K
43.5% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources