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Montgomery, MD · ZIP 20815 · Census Tract 24031704803 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$681K
Downside (P10)
$612K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$735K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $606K | $590K | $592K | $585K | $573K | $511K | $508K | $594K | $636K | $648K | $681K | $702K | $706K | $735K | $672K |
| YoY Change | -2.5% | +0.3% | -1.3% | -2.0% | -10.8% | -0.7% | +16.9% | +7.2% | +1.9% | +5.1% | +3.1% | +0.6% | +4.1% | -8.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $627K | $592K | $612K | $590K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $828K | $892K | $1.0M | $764K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$627K to $828K
28.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$590K to $764K
25.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bethesda · Chevy Chase · (Tract 7048.3) | $656K | $735K | +12.0% | |
| 5 (Tract 701409) | $683K | $782K | +14.5% | |
| 13 (Tract 703223) | $676K | $762K | +12.6% | |
| 13 (Tract 703207) | $676K | $740K | +9.4% | |
| Silver Spring | $673K | $700K | +4.1% | |
| 5 (Tract 701408) | $692K | $679K | -1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bethesda · Chevy Chase · (Tract 7048.3) | $656K | $735K | +12.0% | |
| 2 | $734K | $892K | +21.5% | |
| Silver Spring | $504K | $611K | +21.2% | |
| Aspen Hill (Tract 703213) | $278K | $333K | +19.6% | |
| Aspen Hill (Tract 703220) | $391K | $466K | +19.3% | |
| Leisure World | $291K | $345K | +18.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bethesda · Chevy Chase · (Tract 7048.3) | $656K | $735K | $397K | |
| Germantown | $341K | $381K | $162K | |
| 9 | $392K | $421K | $162K | |
| Montgomery Village | $221K | $231K | $152K | |
| Leisure World | $241K | $250K | $135K | |
| Gaithersburg | $167K | $182K | $92K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.