Somerset, MD · ZIP 21853 · Census Tract 24039930102 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$178K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$193K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$255K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Somerset markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $151K | $144K | $134K | $125K | $125K | $126K | $128K | $139K | $147K | $167K | $178K | $179K | $192K | $193K |
| YoY Change | -4.4% | -6.8% | -6.9% | -0.2% | +1.2% | +1.7% | +8.3% | +5.8% | +13.4% | +6.7% | +0.7% | +7.1% | +0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $153K | $146K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $215K | $242K | $255K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$156K to $215K
32.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$146K to $255K
56.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Mount Vernon area | $170K | $193K | +13.4% | |
| 13, Westover area | $174K | $184K | +5.8% | |
| Near 6, Fairmount | $187K | $207K | +10.5% | |
| 8, Lawsons area | $207K | $212K | +2.7% | |
| 15, East Princess Anne | $221K | $242K | +9.5% | |
| 7, Crisfield area | $127K | $136K | +6.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Mount Vernon area | $170K | $193K | +13.4% | |
| Near 6, Fairmount | $187K | $207K | +10.5% | |
| 15, East Princess Anne | $221K | $242K | +9.5% | |
| 7, Crisfield area | $127K | $136K | +6.9% | |
| 13, Westover area | $174K | $184K | +5.8% | |
| 8, Lawsons area | $207K | $212K | +2.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Mount Vernon area | $170K | $193K | $109K | |
| 7, Crisfield area | $127K | $136K | $64K | |
| 13, Westover area | $174K | $184K | $102K | |
| 8, Lawsons area | $207K | $212K | $112K | |
| Near 6, Fairmount | $187K | $207K | $113K | |
| 15, East Princess Anne | $221K | $242K | $128K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.