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St. Mary's, MD · ZIP 20659 · Census Tract 24037875201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$469K
Downside (P10)
$399K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$526K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$683K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $311K | $309K | $321K | $313K | $332K | $351K | $362K | $410K | $437K | $457K | $469K | $479K | $506K | $526K |
| YoY Change | -0.9% | +4.2% | -2.7% | +6.3% | +5.7% | +2.9% | +13.4% | +6.7% | +4.6% | +2.6% | +2.2% | +5.4% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $401K | $397K | $399K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $585K | $627K | $683K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$401K to $585K
38.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$399K to $683K
54.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Chaptico · Mechanicsville · (Tract 8752.1) | $464K | $526K | +13.2% | |
| 2, Valley Lee | $474K | $530K | +11.8% | |
| 5, Mechanicsville | $464K | $515K | +11.1% | |
| 8, Bay | $453K | $473K | +4.4% | |
| 3, Leonardtown | $450K | $467K | +3.7% | |
| 6, Patuxent | $450K | $460K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Chaptico · Mechanicsville · (Tract 8752.1) | $464K | $526K | +13.2% | |
| 8, Bay (Tract 876001) | $277K | $314K | +13.6% | |
| 8, Bay (Tract 875904) | $387K | $437K | +12.9% | |
| 6, Patuxent (Tract 875602) | $417K | $466K | +11.9% | |
| 2, Valley Lee | $474K | $530K | +11.8% | |
| 6, Patuxent (Tract 875601) | $495K | $552K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Chaptico · Mechanicsville · (Tract 8752.1) | $464K | $526K | $285K | |
| Lexington Park | $307K | $339K | $203K | |
| 8, Bay (Tract 876001) | $277K | $314K | $184K | |
| California | $301K | $335K | $182K | |
| 5, Mechanicsville | $368K | $398K | $178K | |
| 8, Bay (Tract 875905) | $288K | $311K | $170K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.