St. Mary's, MD · ZIP 20653 · Census Tract 24037876200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$432K
Downside (P10)
$361K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$459K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +45%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar St. Mary's markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $342K | $335K | $322K | $324K | $335K | $331K | $330K | $406K | $418K | $443K | $432K | $444K | $451K | $459K |
| YoY Change | -1.9% | -3.9% | +0.6% | +3.3% | -1.1% | -0.5% | +23.1% | +3.1% | +5.8% | -2.5% | +3.0% | +1.4% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $379K | $371K | $361K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $567K | $603K | $624K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$379K to $567K
42.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$361K to $624K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, St. Inigoes | $445K | $459K | +3.3% | |
| 3, Leonardtown | $432K | $479K | +10.8% | |
| 7, Milestown | $419K | $459K | +9.6% | |
| 6, Patuxent | $417K | $466K | +11.9% | |
| 6, Patuxent | $450K | $460K | +2.3% | |
| 3, Leonardtown | $450K | $467K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, St. Inigoes | $445K | $459K | +3.3% | |
| 8, Bay | $277K | $314K | +13.6% | |
| 4, Chaptico | $464K | $526K | +13.2% | |
| 8, Bay | $387K | $437K | +12.9% | |
| 6, Patuxent | $417K | $466K | +11.9% | |
| 2, Valley Lee | $474K | $530K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, St. Inigoes | $445K | $459K | $263K | |
| 8, Bay | $288K | $311K | $170K | |
| 5, Mechanicsville | $368K | $398K | $178K | |
| California | $301K | $335K | $182K | |
| 8, Bay | $277K | $314K | $184K | |
| Lexington Park | $307K | $339K | $203K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.