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York, ME · ZIP 04090 · Census Tract 23031034005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$838K
Downside (P10)
$689K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$939K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.17M
+40% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $586K | $592K | $562K | $796K | $807K | $838K | $880K | $912K | $939K | $836K |
| YoY Change | +1.1% | -5.1% | +41.7% | +1.4% | +3.9% | +4.9% | +3.7% | +2.9% | -10.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $724K | $710K | $689K | $743K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $946K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$724K to $1.03M
34.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$743K to $946K
24.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells · 04090 · (Tract 340.5) | $817K | $939K | +15.0% | |
| Ogunquit | $903K | $1.03M | +13.8% | |
| Kennebunk | $727K | $817K | +12.4% | |
| York (Tract 036003) | $704K | $777K | +10.4% | |
| York (Tract 036004) | $657K | $724K | +10.2% | |
| Kennebunkport | $750K | $805K | +7.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells · 04090 · (Tract 340.5) | $817K | $939K | +15.0% | |
| Biddeford | $384K | $456K | +18.7% | |
| Saco | $337K | $398K | +18.2% | |
| Old Orchard Beach | $365K | $422K | +15.6% | |
| Arundel | $432K | $499K | +15.4% | |
| Ogunquit | $903K | $1.03M | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells · 04090 · (Tract 340.5) | $817K | $939K | $482K | |
| Limerick | $275K | $280K | $153K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030101) | $301K | $335K | $147K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030300) | $266K | $287K | $139K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030102) | $248K | $272K | $130K | |
| Old Orchard Beach | $243K | $253K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.