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York, ME · ZIP 03909 · Census Tract 23031036002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$592K
Downside (P10)
$485K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$563K
-5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$771K
+30% by 2030
Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $355K | $363K | $381K | $402K | $394K | $392K | $408K | $471K | $552K | $606K | $592K | $598K | $588K | $563K |
| YoY Change | +2.1% | +5.0% | +5.5% | -2.1% | -0.5% | +4.2% | +15.4% | +17.2% | +9.7% | -2.2% | +0.9% | -1.6% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $478K | $516K | $485K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $723K | $744K | $771K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$478K to $723K
41.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$485K to $771K
50.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York · 03909 · (Tract 360.2) | $609K | $563K | -7.5% | |
| Biddeford | $384K | $456K | +18.7% | |
| Saco | $337K | $398K | +18.2% | |
| Old Orchard Beach | $365K | $422K | +15.6% | |
| Arundel | $432K | $499K | +15.4% | |
| Wells | $817K | $939K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York · 03909 · (Tract 360.2) | $609K | $563K | $286K | |
| Limerick | $275K | $280K | $153K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030101) | $301K | $335K | $147K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030300) | $266K | $287K | $139K | |
| Sanford (Tract 030102) | $248K | $272K | $130K | |
| Old Orchard Beach | $243K | $253K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.