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Bay, MI · ZIP 48611 · Census Tract 26017285600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$140K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$184K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$240K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $111K | $117K | $115K | $120K | $120K | $130K | $140K | $155K | $162K | $172K | $175K | $178K | $181K | $184K |
| YoY Change | +4.7% | -1.0% | +3.9% | +0.5% | +8.2% | +7.7% | +10.3% | +4.8% | +6.0% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $148K | $146K | $140K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $213K | $225K | $240K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$148K to $213K
36.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$140K to $240K
54.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | $174K | $184K | +5.6% | |
| Beaver | $175K | $201K | +14.9% | |
| Bangor | $176K | $191K | +8.5% | |
| Hampton | $171K | $178K | +4.1% | |
| Fraser area | $168K | $177K | +5.1% | |
| Mount Forest area | $183K | $204K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | $174K | $184K | +5.6% | |
| Bay City (Tract 280300) | $74K | $90K | +22.0% | |
| Beaver | $175K | $201K | +14.9% | |
| Bay City (Tract 280500) | $135K | $156K | +14.9% | |
| Pinconning | $118K | $136K | +14.7% | |
| Bay City (Tract 280900) | $92K | $105K | +14.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | $174K | $184K | $100K | |
| Bay City (Tract 281300) | $93K | $99K | $38K | |
| Bay City (Tract 280900) | $92K | $105K | $51K | |
| Bay City (Tract 280700) | $100K | $111K | $52K | |
| Bay City (Tract 280800) | $110K | $123K | $57K | |
| Bay City (Tract 286600) | $92K | $97K | $58K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.