County 27638, MN · Census Tract 27638500861 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.32M
Downside (P10)
$1.29M
-61% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.17M
-35% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.74M
-17% by 2030
Base case: -35% by 2030, with a forecast range from -61% to -17%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 27638 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.3M | $3.2M | $2.7M | $2.3M | $2.2M |
| YoY Change | -4.1% | -15.4% | -15.9% | -4.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.2M | $1.8M | $1.4M | $1.3M | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.6M | $3.3M | $2.8M | $2.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.78M to $3.67M
26.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.29M to $2.74M
66.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500382 | $3.32M | $2.23M | -32.9% |
| Tract 501284 | $3.34M | $2.19M | -34.4% |
| Tract 501420 | $3.37M | $2.20M | -34.7% |
| Tract 501187 | $3.39M | $2.25M | -33.6% |
| Tract 501242 | $3.25M | $2.13M | -34.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500609 | $3.00M | $2.05M | -31.4% |
| Tract 501048 | $3.24M | $2.17M | -32.9% |
| Tract 500382 | $3.32M | $2.23M | -32.9% |
| Tract 501187 | $3.39M | $2.25M | -33.6% |
| Tract 501103 | $3.52M | $2.34M | -33.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 501242 | $3.25M | $2.13M | $1.26M |
| Tract 500447 | $3.00M | $1.99M | $1.35M |
| Tract 501048 | $3.24M | $2.17M | $1.36M |
| Tract 500382 | $3.32M | $2.23M | $1.44M |
| Tract 500609 | $3.00M | $2.05M | $1.46M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources