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Dakota, MN · ZIP 55120 · Census Tract 27037060605 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$565K
Downside (P10)
$510K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$586K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$865K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $338K | $351K | $360K | $390K | $388K | $399K | $456K | $493K | $533K | $565K | $569K | $576K | $586K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$245,535 | -$227,135 | -$213,235 | -$205,135 | -$174,335 | -$176,235 | -$165,235 | -$108,935 | -$71,835 | -$32,135 | +$4,428 | +$11,115 | +$21,597 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.5% | -40.2% | -37.8% | -36.3% | -30.9% | -31.2% | -29.3% | -19.3% | -12.7% | -5.7% | +0.8% | +2.0% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $508K | $519K | $510K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $737K | $810K | $865K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$508K to $737K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$510K to $865K
60.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | +5.8% | |
| Rosemount | $586K | $685K | +16.9% | |
| Mendota Heights (Tract 060606) | $523K | $565K | +7.9% | |
| Lakeville (Tract 060837) | $552K | $593K | +7.5% | |
| Mendota Heights (Tract 060603) | $535K | $557K | +4.1% | |
| Lakeville (Tract 060816) | $540K | $546K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | +5.8% | |
| Eureka area | $497K | $600K | +20.9% | |
| South St. Paul | $321K | $384K | +19.6% | |
| Burnsville | $375K | $447K | +19.4% | |
| West St. Paul | $260K | $306K | +17.8% | |
| Farmington | $384K | $451K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | $355K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060725) | $208K | $222K | $138K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060829) | $281K | $277K | $137K | |
| West St. Paul | $293K | $306K | $136K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060811) | $337K | $346K | $134K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060749) | $246K | $269K | $129K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dakota, MN · ZIP 55120 · Census Tract 27037060605 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$565K
Downside (P10)
$510K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$586K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$865K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $338K | $351K | $360K | $390K | $388K | $399K | $456K | $493K | $533K | $565K | $569K | $576K | $586K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$245,535 | -$227,135 | -$213,235 | -$205,135 | -$174,335 | -$176,235 | -$165,235 | -$108,935 | -$71,835 | -$32,135 | +$4,428 | +$11,115 | +$21,597 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.5% | -40.2% | -37.8% | -36.3% | -30.9% | -31.2% | -29.3% | -19.3% | -12.7% | -5.7% | +0.8% | +2.0% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $508K | $519K | $510K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $737K | $810K | $865K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$508K to $737K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$510K to $865K
60.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | +5.8% | |
| Rosemount | $586K | $685K | +16.9% | |
| Mendota Heights (Tract 060606) | $523K | $565K | +7.9% | |
| Lakeville (Tract 060837) | $552K | $593K | +7.5% | |
| Mendota Heights (Tract 060603) | $535K | $557K | +4.1% | |
| Lakeville (Tract 060816) | $540K | $546K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | +5.8% | |
| Eureka area | $497K | $600K | +20.9% | |
| South St. Paul | $321K | $384K | +19.6% | |
| Burnsville | $375K | $447K | +19.4% | |
| West St. Paul | $260K | $306K | +17.8% | |
| Farmington | $384K | $451K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendota Heights | $554K | $586K | $355K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060725) | $208K | $222K | $138K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060829) | $281K | $277K | $137K | |
| West St. Paul | $293K | $306K | $136K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060811) | $337K | $346K | $134K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060749) | $246K | $269K | $129K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
