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Douglas, MN · ZIP 56354 · Census Tract 27041450100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$366K
Downside (P10)
$294K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$372K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$587K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 57% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $206K | $209K | $222K | $226K | $245K | $259K | $274K | $296K | $341K | $354K | $366K | $370K | $396K | $372K | $370K |
| YoY Change | +1.8% | +6.2% | +1.8% | +8.4% | +5.5% | +5.7% | +8.0% | +15.5% | +3.8% | +3.2% | +1.2% | +7.1% | -6.1% | -0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $292K | $303K | $294K | $326K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $457K | $513K | $587K | $422K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$292K to $457K
44.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$326K to $422K
25.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf Valley area | $361K | $372K | +3.1% | |
| Lake Mary area | $431K | $494K | +14.7% | |
| Ida area | $405K | $447K | +10.5% | |
| Alexandria | $332K | $356K | +7.0% | |
| Orange area | $301K | $310K | +3.0% | |
| Belle River area | $332K | $336K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf Valley area | $361K | $372K | +3.1% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450703) | $291K | $340K | +16.6% | |
| Lake Mary area | $431K | $494K | +14.7% | |
| Alexandria area | $298K | $336K | +12.8% | |
| Urness area | $284K | $320K | +12.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450704) | $219K | $243K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf Valley area | $361K | $372K | $292K | |
| Alexandria area | $298K | $336K | $172K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450702) | $332K | $356K | $168K | |
| Orange area | $301K | $310K | $147K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450601) | $288K | $313K | $142K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 450704) | $219K | $243K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.