What is the home price forecast for Festus?

Homecastr forecasts Festus median home values at $209,373 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 15.7%.

How confident is the Festus forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $175,474 (downside) to $306,770 (upside), with a spread of 54% of median.

Festus Home Price Forecast

Jefferson, MO · ZIP 63028 · Census Tract 29099700801 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$209K

Downside (P10)

$175K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$242K

+16% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$307K

+47% by 2030

Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Jefferson markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$123K	$121K	$119K	$122K	$124K	$126K	$151K	$168K	$182K	$204K	$209K	$218K	$228K	$242K
YoY Change		-1.2%	-1.7%	+2.4%	+1.9%	+1.7%	+20.0%	+10.7%	+8.8%	+12.0%	+2.6%	+4.0%	+4.5%	+6.4%
Downside (P10)												$188K	$177K	$175K
Upside (P90)												$271K	$286K	$307K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.

1-Year Spread

$188K to $271K

37.8% of median

5-Year Spread

$175K to $307K

54.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +15.7% · Spread: 54%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Festus	$207K	$242K	+17.1%
Arnold	$202K	$203K	+0.4%
Arnold	$217K	$237K	+9.2%
Rock area	$201K	$213K	+5.8%
Rock	$200K	$218K	+8.7%
Windsor	$222K	$235K	+5.8%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Festus	$207K	$242K	+17.1%
Imperial	$376K	$442K	+17.5%
Murphy	$195K	$225K	+15.2%
Imperial area	$237K	$273K	+14.9%
Valle	$169K	$194K	+14.8%
Valle	$195K	$223K	+14.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Festus	$207K	$242K	$131K
Joachim	$165K	$178K	$78K
Big River	$179K	$199K	$91K
Arnold	$183K	$191K	$98K
Meramec	$176K	$190K	$101K
Meramec	$179K	$198K	$101K

Location

Festus on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).