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Newton, MO · ZIP 64804 · Census Tract 29145020601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$257K
Downside (P10)
$203K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$260K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$340K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $152K | $162K | $175K | $179K | $165K | $200K | $220K | $235K | $250K | $257K | $254K | $257K | $260K |
| YoY Change | -3.0% | +6.7% | +7.8% | +2.2% | -7.4% | +20.7% | +10.2% | +6.7% | +6.4% | +2.8% | -1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $200K | $209K | $203K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $303K | $313K | $340K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$200K to $303K
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$203K to $340K
52.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Mile area | $251K | $260K | +3.4% | |
| Neosho | $208K | $229K | +10.1% | |
| Shoal Creek (Tract 020502) | $230K | $247K | +7.4% | |
| Marion | $195K | $204K | +4.4% | |
| Neosho area | $200K | $205K | +2.7% | |
| Shoal Creek (Tract 020501) | $278K | $285K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Mile area | $251K | $260K | +3.4% | |
| West Benton area | $185K | $208K | +12.3% | |
| Marion area | $122K | $135K | +11.0% | |
| Neosho (Tract 020100) | $149K | $165K | +10.3% | |
| Neosho (Tract 020300) | $208K | $229K | +10.1% | |
| Franklin area | $163K | $179K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Mile area | $251K | $260K | $137K | |
| Seneca area | $172K | $175K | $96K | |
| Neosho (Tract 020100) | $149K | $165K | $96K | |
| Neosho (Tract 020200) | $168K | $180K | $93K | |
| Granby | $131K | $143K | $85K | |
| Marion area | $122K | $135K | $72K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.