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Caldwell, NC · ZIP 28638 · Census Tract 37027030600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$228K
Downside (P10)
$209K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$251K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$304K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $129K | $135K | $142K | $150K | $154K | $164K | $177K | $194K | $217K | $228K | $234K | $248K | $251K |
| YoY Change | -4.4% | +4.1% | +5.6% | +5.8% | +2.5% | +6.2% | +8.4% | +9.3% | +12.1% | +5.1% | +2.8% | +5.9% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $204K | $213K | $209K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $264K | $286K | $304K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$204K to $264K
25.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$209K to $304K
37.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson | $222K | $251K | +13.1% | |
| Lower Creek | $244K | $273K | +11.9% | |
| Kings Creek area | $242K | $262K | +8.2% | |
| Lovelady (Tract 031403) | $217K | $231K | +6.5% | |
| Little River | $221K | $234K | +6.1% | |
| Lovelady (Tract 031302) | $217K | $220K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson | $222K | $251K | +13.1% | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030100) | $157K | $182K | +15.8% | |
| Hudson area | $158K | $181K | +15.0% | |
| Lovelady | $190K | $215K | +13.2% | |
| Lower Creek | $244K | $273K | +11.9% | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030300) | $150K | $167K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson | $222K | $251K | $95K | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030802) | $152K | $165K | $90K | |
| Patterson area | $166K | $180K | $89K | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030200) | $128K | $143K | $81K | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030300) | $150K | $167K | $75K | |
| Lenoir (Tract 030400) | $124K | $126K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.