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Carteret, NC · ZIP 28512 · Census Tract 37031971003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$608K
Downside (P10)
$571K
-6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$671K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$903K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -6% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $390K | $415K | $482K | $567K | $575K | $608K | $639K | $660K | $671K | $604K |
| YoY Change | +6.6% | +16.0% | +17.5% | +1.6% | +5.7% | +5.0% | +3.3% | +1.7% | -9.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $548K | $559K | $571K | $535K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $745K | $809K | $903K | $672K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$548K to $745K
30.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$535K to $672K
22.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead · Atlantic Beach · (Tract 9710.3) | $606K | $671K | +10.7% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970904) | $491K | $567K | +15.5% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970903) | $722K | $817K | +13.2% | |
| Morehead (Tract 971103) | $511K | $562K | +9.9% | |
| Beaufort | $483K | $512K | +6.0% | |
| Morehead (Tract 970403) | $533K | $560K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead · Atlantic Beach · (Tract 9710.3) | $606K | $671K | +10.7% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970904) | $491K | $567K | +15.5% | |
| White Oak (Tract 970903) | $722K | $817K | +13.2% | |
| Newport | $213K | $240K | +12.7% | |
| Beaufort | $443K | $495K | +11.6% | |
| Morehead City | $161K | $178K | +10.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead · Atlantic Beach · (Tract 9710.3) | $606K | $671K | $331K | |
| Morehead City (Tract 970402) | $245K | $250K | $141K | |
| Morehead City (Tract 970401) | $161K | $178K | $117K | |
| Morehead (Tract 970501) | $194K | $205K | $104K | |
| Atlantic | $170K | $185K | $87K | |
| Morehead (Tract 970603) | $122K | $131K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.