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Durham, NC · ZIP 27704 · Census Tract 37063001801 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$242K
Downside (P10)
$206K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$259K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$324K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $136K | $134K | $138K | $142K | $146K | $144K | $157K | $197K | $213K | $248K | $242K | $245K | $255K | $259K |
| YoY Change | -1.0% | +2.3% | +3.6% | +2.5% | -1.4% | +9.2% | +25.3% | +8.2% | +16.3% | -2.3% | +1.3% | +3.9% | +1.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $218K | $205K | $206K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $290K | $313K | $324K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$218K to $290K
29.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$206K to $324K
45.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Grove | $245K | $259K | +5.6% | |
| Durham (Tract 001802) | $258K | $288K | +11.8% | |
| Durham (Tract 001304) | $254K | $275K | +8.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 002009) | $234K | $251K | +7.3% | |
| Durham (Tract 001002) | $220K | $233K | +6.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 001711) | $241K | $251K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Grove | $245K | $259K | +5.6% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $473K | $580K | +22.6% | |
| Triangle | $419K | $486K | +16.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 001706) | $354K | $408K | +15.3% | |
| Durham (Tract 000402) | $620K | $713K | +15.0% | |
| Oak Grove | $383K | $440K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Grove | $245K | $259K | $118K | |
| Durham (Tract 002009) | $234K | $251K | $121K | |
| Durham (Tract 001002) | $220K | $233K | $111K | |
| Durham (Tract 001400) | $170K | $187K | $97K | |
| Oak Grove | $189K | $204K | $90K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $194K | $218K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.