New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28411 · Census Tract 37129011612 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$324K
Downside (P10)
$258K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$368K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$537K
+66% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +66%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar New Hanover markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $249K | $262K | $285K | $326K | $324K | $348K | $361K | $368K |
| YoY Change | +15.6% | +5.1% | +8.8% | +14.2% | -0.4% | +7.2% | +4.0% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $270K | $265K | $258K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $469K | $508K | $537K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The range stays consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$270K to $469K
57.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$258K to $537K
75.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harnett · Wilmington · (Tract 116.12) | $326K | $368K | +12.8% | |
| Wilmington | $317K | $325K | +2.5% | |
| Silver Lake | $332K | $372K | +12.0% | |
| Kings Grant | $316K | $348K | +10.2% | |
| Cape Fear | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Cape Fear | $313K | $329K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harnett · Wilmington · (Tract 116.12) | $326K | $368K | +12.8% | |
| Wilmington | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harnett · Wilmington · (Tract 116.12) | $326K | $368K | $279K | |
| Cape Fear | $223K | $253K | $103K | |
| Wilmington | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Wilmington | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Cape Fear | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington | $256K | $266K | $136K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.