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New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129012103 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$405K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$446K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$585K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $241K | $242K | $253K | $268K | $279K | $297K | $345K | $369K | $398K | $405K | $427K | $439K | $446K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,883 | -$164,683 | -$162,983 | -$152,383 | -$137,183 | -$126,483 | -$108,483 | -$60,183 | -$35,983 | -$7,783 | +$21,775 | +$33,383 | +$41,151 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.9% | -40.6% | -40.2% | -37.6% | -33.8% | -31.2% | -26.8% | -14.8% | -8.9% | -1.9% | +5.4% | +8.2% | +10.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $363K | $366K | $353K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $487K | $539K | $585K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$363K to $487K
29.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $585K
51.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | +10.2% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 012009) | $389K | $437K | +12.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011502) | $397K | $439K | +10.7% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010100) | $389K | $412K | +6.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011501) | $415K | $435K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | +10.2% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | $232K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
New Hanover, NC · ZIP 28409 · Census Tract 37129012103 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$405K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$446K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$585K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $241K | $242K | $253K | $268K | $279K | $297K | $345K | $369K | $398K | $405K | $427K | $439K | $446K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,883 | -$164,683 | -$162,983 | -$152,383 | -$137,183 | -$126,483 | -$108,483 | -$60,183 | -$35,983 | -$7,783 | +$21,775 | +$33,383 | +$41,151 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.9% | -40.6% | -40.2% | -37.6% | -33.8% | -31.2% | -26.8% | -14.8% | -8.9% | -1.9% | +5.4% | +8.2% | +10.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $363K | $366K | $353K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $487K | $539K | $585K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$363K to $487K
29.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $585K
51.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | +10.2% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 012009) | $389K | $437K | +12.3% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011502) | $397K | $439K | +10.7% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010100) | $389K | $412K | +6.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011501) | $415K | $435K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | +10.2% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010504) | $204K | $239K | +16.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011200) | $303K | $347K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011610) | $227K | $260K | +14.6% | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011608) | $333K | $380K | +14.1% | |
| Federal Point | $405K | $459K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Grove | $405K | $446K | $232K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010501) | $256K | $266K | $136K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011609) | $313K | $329K | $129K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 010700) | $224K | $246K | $123K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 011906) | $204K | $227K | $117K | |
| Cape Fear (Tract 011503) | $223K | $253K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
