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Orange, NC · ZIP 27514 · Census Tract 37135011902 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$647K
Downside (P10)
$556K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$720K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$962K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $370K | $385K | $399K | $447K | $422K | $536K | $540K | $589K | $617K | $632K | $647K | $672K | $691K | $720K |
| YoY Change | +4.0% | +3.7% | +12.0% | -5.6% | +27.0% | +0.8% | +9.0% | +4.7% | +2.5% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +2.8% | +4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $593K | $566K | $556K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $800K | $896K | $962K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$593K to $800K
30.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$556K to $962K
56.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill · 27514 · (Tract 119.2) | $639K | $720K | +12.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 012102) | $623K | $686K | +10.1% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011207) | $611K | $665K | +8.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011800) | $613K | $654K | +6.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 012202) | $654K | $679K | +3.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010709) | $676K | $692K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill · 27514 · (Tract 119.2) | $639K | $720K | +12.7% | |
| Cedar Grove | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011500) | $988K | $1.15M | +16.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $374K | $433K | +15.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill · 27514 · (Tract 119.2) | $639K | $720K | $406K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | $170K | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | $168K | |
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | $165K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011103) | $251K | $271K | $157K | |
| Cedar Grove | $255K | $280K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.