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County 35240, NM · Census Tract 35240040002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$248K
Downside (P10)
$240K
-4% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$360K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$592K
+138% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -4% to +138%. The model forecasts this with 46% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $297K | $312K | $330K | $360K |
| YoY Change | +19.6% | +5.1% | +5.7% | +9.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $221K | $222K | $234K | $240K | |
| Upside (P90) | $403K | $439K | $494K | $592K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$221K to $403K
61.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$240K to $592K
97.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $248K | $360K | +44.9% | |
| Tract 720005 | $239K | $372K | +55.6% | |
| Tract 360009 | $241K | $372K | +54.6% | |
| Tract 520001 | $247K | $356K | +44.0% | |
| Tract 200004 | $240K | $344K | +43.1% | |
| Tract 240006 | $251K | $352K | +40.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $248K | $360K | +44.9% | |
| Tract 720005 | $239K | $372K | +55.6% | |
| Tract 360009 | $241K | $372K | +54.6% | |
| Tract 320007 | $230K | $339K | +47.3% | |
| Tract 520001 | $247K | $356K | +44.0% | |
| Tract 200004 | $240K | $344K | +43.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $248K | $360K | $352K | |
| Tract 720005 | $239K | $372K | $294K | |
| Tract 200004 | $240K | $344K | $288K | |
| Tract 520001 | $247K | $356K | $285K | |
| Tract 320007 | $230K | $339K | $282K | |
| Tract 800006 | $238K | $337K | $259K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources