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County 35191, NM · Census Tract 35191920006 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$321K
Downside (P10)
$276K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$430K
+34% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$630K
+96% by 2030
Base case: +34% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +96%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $321K | $371K | $379K | $393K | $430K |
| YoY Change | +15.4% | +2.4% | +3.6% | +9.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $287K | $265K | $259K | $276K | |
| Upside (P90) | $478K | $530K | $578K | $630K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$287K to $478K
51.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$276K to $630K
82.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $321K | $430K | +33.8% | |
| Tract 320004 | $296K | $437K | +47.8% | |
| Tract 560000 | $283K | $410K | +44.9% | |
| Tract 520008 | $284K | $409K | +44.0% | |
| Tract 960008 | $316K | $445K | +40.9% | |
| Tract 400005 | $281K | $390K | +38.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $321K | $430K | +33.8% | |
| Tract 240003 | $201K | $318K | +58.5% | |
| Tract 680003 | $270K | $418K | +54.7% | |
| Tract 760004 | $273K | $419K | +53.3% | |
| Tract 720002 | $267K | $404K | +51.3% | |
| Tract 320004 | $296K | $437K | +47.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $321K | $430K | $354K | |
| Tract 760004 | $273K | $419K | $357K | |
| Tract 680003 | $270K | $418K | $329K | |
| Tract 720002 | $267K | $404K | $320K | |
| Tract 400005 | $281K | $390K | $307K | |
| Tract 240003 | $201K | $318K | $277K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources