County 32421, NV · Census Tract 32421001009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$426K
Downside (P10)
$265K
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$496K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$806K
+89% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to +89%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 32421 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $426K | $472K | $457K | $457K | $496K |
| YoY Change | +11.0% | -3.3% | +0.1% | +8.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $302K | $281K | $265K | |
| Upside (P90) | $624K | $730K | $714K | $806K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$341K to $562K
51.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$265K to $806K
108.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000042 | $426K | $519K | +22.0% |
| Tract 000987 | $419K | $496K | +18.5% |
| Tract 000026 | $418K | $505K | +20.7% |
| Tract 000505 | $414K | $487K | +17.6% |
| Tract 001724 | $406K | $489K | +20.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000165 | $368K | $496K | +34.6% |
| Tract 000246 | $357K | $461K | +29.0% |
| Tract 000123 | $355K | $456K | +28.3% |
| Tract 000563 | $363K | $463K | +27.5% |
| Tract 001708 | $401K | $508K | +26.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001180 | $377K | $418K | $384K |
| Tract 001724 | $406K | $489K | $443K |
| Tract 001423 | $373K | $468K | $446K |
| Tract 001342 | $363K | $445K | $459K |
| Tract 000385 | $357K | $451K | $459K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources