County 32431, NV · Census Tract 32431502585 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$741K
Downside (P10)
$309K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$609K
-18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.16M
+56% by 2030
Base case: -18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +56%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 32431 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $741K | $744K | $679K | $605K | $609K |
| YoY Change | +0.5% | -8.8% | -10.9% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $436K | $364K | $324K | $309K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$527K to $923K
53.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$309K to $1.16M
139.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 502462 | $745K | $716K | -4.0% |
| Tract 502365 | $727K | $634K | -12.7% |
| Tract 502501 | $725K | $760K | +4.8% |
| Tract 502446 | $723K | $705K | -2.6% |
| Tract 502284 | $715K | $701K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 304000 | $2.13M | $3.08M | +44.8% |
| Tract 304327 | $1.96M | $2.80M | +42.7% |
| Tract 303962 | $2.21M | $3.11M | +40.9% |
| Tract 303823 | $1.99M | $2.77M | +39.0% |
| Tract 304741 | $3.45M | $4.74M | +37.4% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources