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Las Vegas, NV · ZIP 89102 · Census Tract 32003000204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$550K
Downside (P10)
$465K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$584K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$775K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $225K | $245K | $247K | $302K | $346K | $354K | $357K | $478K | $467K | $527K | $550K | $551K | $594K | $584K | $548K |
| YoY Change | +8.9% | +0.9% | +22.1% | +14.7% | +2.3% | +1.0% | +33.7% | -2.2% | +12.9% | +4.4% | +0.2% | +7.7% | -1.7% | -6.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $467K | $451K | $465K | $488K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $633K | $707K | $775K | $612K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$467K to $633K
30.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$488K to $612K
22.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89102 · (Tract 2.4) | $541K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003263) | $549K | $602K | +9.8% | |
| Henderson (Tract 005352) | $551K | $577K | +4.7% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003250) | $550K | $570K | +3.6% | |
| Henderson (Tract 005351) | $550K | $561K | +2.0% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003314) | $553K | $559K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89102 · (Tract 2.4) | $541K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Winchester | $219K | $268K | +22.2% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002902) | $699K | $852K | +21.9% | |
| Las Vegas | $749K | $910K | +21.5% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002845) | $374K | $453K | +21.1% | |
| North Las Vegas | $390K | $472K | +21.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89102 · (Tract 2.4) | $541K | $584K | $310K | |
| Spring Valley | $98K | $106K | $56K | |
| Paradise | $57K | $64K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.