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Las Vegas, NV · ZIP 89144 · Census Tract 32003003223 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$876K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.08M
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.62M
+55% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $602K | $650K | $688K | $729K | $788K | $829K | $859K | $941K | $988K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +8.0% | +5.9% | +6.0% | +8.0% | +5.3% | +3.6% | +9.5% | +5.0% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +1.3% | +0.1% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $945K | $934K | $876K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$945K to $1.26M
29.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$876K to $1.62M
69.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89144 · (Tract 32.23) | $1.04M | $1.08M | +3.8% | |
| Henderson (Tract 005356) | $1.01M | $1.19M | +17.9% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 002916) | $1.05M | $1.23M | +17.2% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 003226) | $1.03M | $1.17M | +13.3% | |
| Las Vegas (Tract 001005) | $1.02M | $1.13M | +10.9% | |
| Henderson (Tract 005715) | $950K | $971K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89144 · (Tract 32.23) | $1.04M | $1.08M | +3.8% | |
| Winchester | $219K | $268K | +22.2% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002902) | $699K | $852K | +21.9% | |
| Las Vegas | $749K | $910K | +21.5% | |
| Enterprise (Tract 002845) | $374K | $453K | +21.1% | |
| North Las Vegas | $390K | $472K | +21.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas · 89144 · (Tract 32.23) | $1.04M | $1.08M | $748K | |
| Spring Valley | $98K | $106K | $56K | |
| Paradise | $57K | $64K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.