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Washoe, NV · ZIP 89502 · Census Tract 32031002105 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$497K
Downside (P10)
$444K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$513K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$733K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $168K | $207K | $221K | $269K | $282K | $327K | $427K | $456K | $475K | $497K | $508K | $517K | $513K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$333,163 | -$329,463 | -$289,663 | -$276,263 | -$227,863 | -$215,063 | -$169,563 | -$70,463 | -$41,163 | -$22,163 | +$11,085 | +$20,284 | +$16,230 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -67.0% | -66.3% | -58.3% | -55.6% | -45.9% | -43.3% | -34.1% | -14.2% | -8.3% | -4.5% | +2.2% | +4.1% | +3.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $460K | $465K | $444K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $585K | $637K | $733K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$460K to $585K
24.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$444K to $733K
56.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | +5.3% | |
| Reno (Tract 000202) | $500K | $584K | +16.7% | |
| Reno North (Tract 002500) | $506K | $584K | +15.5% | |
| Reno (Tract 002401) | $481K | $522K | +8.6% | |
| Reno North (Tract 001704) | $502K | $533K | +6.2% | |
| Sparks | $488K | $513K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | +5.3% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | $289K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Washoe, NV · ZIP 89502 · Census Tract 32031002105 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$497K
Downside (P10)
$444K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$513K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$733K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $168K | $207K | $221K | $269K | $282K | $327K | $427K | $456K | $475K | $497K | $508K | $517K | $513K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$333,163 | -$329,463 | -$289,663 | -$276,263 | -$227,863 | -$215,063 | -$169,563 | -$70,463 | -$41,163 | -$22,163 | +$11,085 | +$20,284 | +$16,230 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -67.0% | -66.3% | -58.3% | -55.6% | -45.9% | -43.3% | -34.1% | -14.2% | -8.3% | -4.5% | +2.2% | +4.1% | +3.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $460K | $465K | $444K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $585K | $637K | $733K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$460K to $585K
24.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$444K to $733K
56.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | +5.3% | |
| Reno (Tract 000202) | $500K | $584K | +16.7% | |
| Reno North (Tract 002500) | $506K | $584K | +15.5% | |
| Reno (Tract 002401) | $481K | $522K | +8.6% | |
| Reno North (Tract 001704) | $502K | $533K | +6.2% | |
| Sparks | $488K | $513K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | +5.3% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $487K | $513K | $289K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
