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Chautauqua, NY · ZIP 14048 · Census Tract 36013035400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$77K
Downside (P10)
$67K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$87K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$123K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $61K | $60K | $62K | $61K | $62K | $60K | $65K | $75K | $76K | $76K | $77K | $80K | $84K | $87K |
| YoY Change | -1.3% | +3.0% | -1.8% | +1.8% | -3.5% | +8.5% | +14.8% | +1.2% | +0.7% | +1.9% | +3.2% | +5.6% | +3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $67K | $63K | $67K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $108K | $116K | $123K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$67K to $108K
51.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$67K to $123K
64.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkirk | $76K | $87K | +15.0% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030800) | $91K | $108K | +19.5% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030600) | $60K | $69K | +14.0% | |
| Near Dunkirk | $89K | $100K | +12.5% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030100) | $85K | $89K | +4.8% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030700) | $85K | $89K | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkirk | $76K | $87K | +15.0% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030800) | $91K | $108K | +19.5% | |
| Sheridan | $198K | $232K | +17.3% | |
| Fredonia | $210K | $243K | +16.2% | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030600) | $60K | $69K | +14.0% | |
| Poland area | $113K | $129K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkirk | $76K | $87K | $56K | |
| Near Dunkirk | $89K | $100K | $52K | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030600) | $60K | $69K | $46K | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030400) | $106K | $108K | $46K | |
| Jamestown (Tract 030700) | $85K | $89K | $35K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.