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County 36116, NY · Census Tract 36116760004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$545K
+23% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$810K
+82% by 2030
Base case: +23% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +82%. The model forecasts this with 54% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $445K | $497K | $515K | $510K | $545K |
| YoY Change | +11.7% | +3.7% | -1.0% | +6.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $364K | $353K | $348K | $359K | |
| Upside (P90) | $648K | $720K | $750K | $810K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. This typically reflects limited transaction history, high price variance, or rapid neighborhood change.
1-Year Spread
$364K to $648K
57.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$359K to $810K
82.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $445K | $545K | +22.5% | |
| Tract 360006 | $429K | $600K | +39.8% | |
| Tract 160002 | $491K | $676K | +37.6% | |
| Tract 800003 | $453K | $607K | +33.8% | |
| Tract 000007 | $432K | $562K | +30.2% | |
| Tract 560000 | $467K | $598K | +28.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $445K | $545K | +22.5% | |
| Tract 360006 | $429K | $600K | +39.8% | |
| Tract 160002 | $491K | $676K | +37.6% | |
| Tract 800003 | $453K | $607K | +33.8% | |
| Tract 000007 | $432K | $562K | +30.2% | |
| Tract 560000 | $467K | $598K | +28.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $445K | $545K | $451K | |
| Tract 160002 | $491K | $676K | $605K | |
| Tract 800003 | $453K | $607K | $524K | |
| Tract 560000 | $467K | $598K | $489K | |
| Tract 000007 | $432K | $562K | $480K | |
| Tract 360006 | $429K | $600K | $449K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources