County 36613, NY · Census Tract 36613620003 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$415K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$890K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.43M
+37% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +37%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36613 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.1M | $935K | $912K | $890K |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | -12.6% | -2.4% | -2.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $605K | $523K | $425K | $415K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$708K to $1.35M
61.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$415K to $1.43M
114.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680001 | $1.00M | $1.40M | +40.0% |
| Tract 760002 | $1.18M | $1.26M | +6.7% |
| Tract 360004 | $855K | $719K | -15.9% |
| Tract 800001 | $760K | $642K | -15.5% |
| Tract 201008 | $747K | $688K | -7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 560008 | $544K | $783K | +43.8% |
| Tract 640009 | $467K | $659K | +41.1% |
| Tract 680001 | $1.00M | $1.40M | +40.0% |
| Tract 840003 | $552K | $616K | +11.7% |
| Tract 760002 | $1.18M | $1.26M | +6.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640009 | $467K | $659K | $487K |
| Tract 560008 | $544K | $783K | $600K |
| Tract 680001 | $1.00M | $1.40M | $716K |
| Tract 840003 | $552K | $616K | $754K |
| Tract 800001 | $760K | $642K | $790K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources