County 36614, NY · Census Tract 36614380009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.07M
Downside (P10)
$365K
-66% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$789K
-27% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.36M
+27% by 2030
Base case: -27% by 2030, with a forecast range from -66% to +27%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36614 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $914K | $811K | $789K |
| YoY Change | -2.0% | -13.2% | -11.3% | -2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $571K | $439K | $374K | $365K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$698K to $1.39M
64.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$365K to $1.36M
126.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520005 | $1.04M | $758K | -27.2% |
| Tract 720009 | $1.11M | $1.40M | +26.1% |
| Tract 800000 | $1.03M | $800K | -22.0% |
| Tract 681009 | $737K | $686K | -6.9% |
| Tract 760001 | $708K | $659K | -6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360003 | $473K | $664K | +40.4% |
| Tract 720009 | $1.11M | $1.40M | +26.1% |
| Tract 080008 | $692K | $651K | -5.9% |
| Tract 160009 | $705K | $662K | -6.1% |
| Tract 760001 | $708K | $659K | -6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360003 | $473K | $664K | $441K |
| Tract 160009 | $705K | $662K | $714K |
| Tract 960005 | $613K | $570K | $754K |
| Tract 760001 | $708K | $659K | $760K |
| Tract 800000 | $1.03M | $800K | $775K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources