County 36615, NY · Census Tract 36615120103 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.11M
Downside (P10)
$521K
-53% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$914K
-18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.63M
+46% by 2030
Base case: -18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -53% to +46%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36615 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $979K | $905K | $914K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | -11.9% | -7.5% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $696K | $596K | $518K | $521K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$829K to $1.35M
46.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$521K to $1.63M
121.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800009 | $953K | $784K | -17.8% |
| Tract 200007 | $1.37M | $1.39M | +1.1% |
| Tract 820005 | $826K | $716K | -13.3% |
| Tract 840001 | $1.44M | $939K | -34.6% |
| Tract 520004 | $1.44M | $1.17M | -18.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $1.37M | $1.39M | +1.1% |
| Tract 280001 | $725K | $699K | -3.7% |
| Tract 320000 | $773K | $725K | -6.2% |
| Tract 680009 | $768K | $714K | -7.0% |
| Tract 120006 | $689K | $633K | -8.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $1.37M | $1.39M | $737K |
| Tract 800009 | $953K | $784K | $766K |
| Tract 820005 | $826K | $716K | $781K |
| Tract 120006 | $689K | $633K | $792K |
| Tract 280001 | $725K | $699K | $846K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources