County 36616, NY · Census Tract 36616700001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$833K
Downside (P10)
$346K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$706K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.38M
+65% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +65%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36616 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $833K | $831K | $762K | $719K | $706K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | -8.4% | -5.6% | -1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $461K | $368K | $356K | $346K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$594K to $1.13M
63.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$346K to $1.38M
146.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | -1.2% |
| Tract 800008 | $938K | $813K | -13.3% |
| Tract 880002 | $697K | $674K | -3.3% |
| Tract 860006 | $1.02M | $722K | -29.5% |
| Tract 721006 | $1.07M | $835K | -22.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | -1.2% |
| Tract 880002 | $697K | $674K | -3.3% |
| Tract 280000 | $1.35M | $1.20M | -10.9% |
| Tract 800008 | $938K | $813K | -13.3% |
| Tract 721006 | $1.07M | $835K | -22.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880002 | $697K | $674K | $811K |
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | $813K |
| Tract 721006 | $1.07M | $835K | $918K |
| Tract 860006 | $1.02M | $722K | $938K |
| Tract 280000 | $1.35M | $1.20M | $956K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources