County 36616, NY · Census Tract 36616721006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.07M
Downside (P10)
$430K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$835K
-22% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.35M
+26% by 2030
Base case: -22% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +26%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36616 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $936K | $866K | $835K |
| YoY Change | -1.0% | -11.7% | -7.5% | -3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $598K | $490K | $427K | $430K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$776K to $1.32M
50.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$430K to $1.35M
109.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 860006 | $1.02M | $722K | -29.5% |
| Tract 800008 | $938K | $813K | -13.3% |
| Tract 700001 | $833K | $706K | -15.3% |
| Tract 280000 | $1.35M | $1.20M | -10.9% |
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | -1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | -1.2% |
| Tract 880002 | $697K | $674K | -3.3% |
| Tract 280000 | $1.35M | $1.20M | -10.9% |
| Tract 800008 | $938K | $813K | -13.3% |
| Tract 700001 | $833K | $706K | -15.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880002 | $697K | $674K | $811K |
| Tract 480004 | $747K | $738K | $813K |
| Tract 860006 | $1.02M | $722K | $938K |
| Tract 280000 | $1.35M | $1.20M | $956K |
| Tract 700001 | $833K | $706K | $1.03M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources