County 36714, NY · Census Tract 36714340004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$636K
Downside (P10)
$303K
-52% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$612K
-4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+73% by 2030
Base case: -4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -52% to +73%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36714 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $636K | $645K | $623K | $602K | $612K |
| YoY Change | +1.5% | -3.4% | -3.4% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $411K | $313K | $290K | $303K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1000K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$470K to $856K
60.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$303K to $1.10M
130.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800007 | $642K | $747K | +16.4% |
| Tract 920000 | $643K | $606K | -5.7% |
| Tract 440001 | $573K | $665K | +15.9% |
| Tract 320008 | $557K | $574K | +3.0% |
| Tract 600003 | $516K | $569K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960002 | $371K | $459K | +23.7% |
| Tract 840009 | $771K | $921K | +19.5% |
| Tract 800007 | $642K | $747K | +16.4% |
| Tract 440001 | $573K | $665K | +15.9% |
| Tract 400106 | $977K | $1.13M | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960002 | $371K | $459K | $618K |
| Tract 480003 | $487K | $540K | $708K |
| Tract 320008 | $557K | $574K | $802K |
| Tract 440001 | $573K | $665K | $832K |
| Tract 920000 | $643K | $606K | $841K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources