County 36863, NY · Census Tract 36863940009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$510K
Downside (P10)
$301K
-41% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$602K
+18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+97% by 2030
Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -41% to +97%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36863 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $510K | $564K | $575K | $577K | $602K |
| YoY Change | +10.7% | +1.9% | +0.5% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $375K | $344K | $292K | $301K | |
| Upside (P90) | $752K | $871K | $918K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$410K to $645K
46.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$301K to $1.01M
117.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 320001 | $598K | $583K | -2.6% |
| Tract 600006 | $634K | $591K | -6.8% |
| Tract 080008 | $637K | $705K | +10.7% |
| Tract 680107 | $640K | $527K | -17.7% |
| Tract 400002 | $295K | $419K | +41.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400002 | $295K | $419K | +41.9% |
| Tract 280303 | $799K | $1.10M | +37.7% |
| Tract 080008 | $637K | $705K | +10.7% |
| Tract 320001 | $598K | $583K | -2.6% |
| Tract 600006 | $634K | $591K | -6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400002 | $295K | $419K | $367K |
| Tract 680107 | $640K | $527K | $664K |
| Tract 320001 | $598K | $583K | $669K |
| Tract 280303 | $799K | $1.10M | $726K |
| Tract 600006 | $634K | $591K | $817K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources