County 36315, NY · Census Tract 36315600004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$787K
Downside (P10)
$485K
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$821K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.62M
+105% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to +105%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36315 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $787K | $828K | $805K | $798K | $821K |
| YoY Change | +5.2% | -2.8% | -0.8% | +2.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $555K | $487K | $480K | $485K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$623K to $1.06M
55.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$485K to $1.62M
137.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880002 | $808K | $859K | +6.3% |
| Tract 640006 | $741K | $736K | -0.8% |
| Tract 720007 | $580K | $808K | +39.4% |
| Tract 360001 | $535K | $655K | +22.6% |
| Tract 280000 | $508K | $690K | +35.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $492K | $701K | +42.5% |
| Tract 720007 | $580K | $808K | +39.4% |
| Tract 000002 | $490K | $678K | +38.3% |
| Tract 280000 | $508K | $690K | +35.9% |
| Tract 360001 | $535K | $655K | +22.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360001 | $535K | $655K | $545K |
| Tract 000002 | $490K | $678K | $545K |
| Tract 280000 | $508K | $690K | $613K |
| Tract 520003 | $492K | $701K | $614K |
| Tract 720007 | $580K | $808K | $795K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources