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Erie, NY · ZIP 14201 · Census Tract 36029007000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$228K
Downside (P10)
$197K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$251K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$296K
+30% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $71K | $76K | $92K | $98K | $113K | $121K | $147K | $164K | $186K | $219K | $228K | $228K | $247K | $251K |
| YoY Change | +7.2% | +20.2% | +6.5% | +15.8% | +6.5% | +21.7% | +11.5% | +13.4% | +18.0% | +4.1% | -0.1% | +8.3% | +1.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $187K | $191K | $197K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $268K | $281K | $296K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$187K to $268K
35.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$197K to $296K
39.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14201 · (Tract 70) | $224K | $251K | +11.9% | |
| West Seneca | $227K | $255K | +12.5% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008001) | $228K | $246K | +8.1% | |
| Amherst | $229K | $245K | +6.8% | |
| North Collins | $227K | $236K | +4.3% | |
| Tonawanda Town (Tract 008002) | $230K | $239K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14201 · (Tract 70) | $224K | $251K | +11.9% | |
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Angola | $169K | $201K | +19.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo · 14201 · (Tract 70) | $224K | $251K | $99K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 017000) | $70K | $77K | $36K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.