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Erie, NY · ZIP 14225 · Census Tract 36029010103 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$174K
Downside (P10)
$143K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$178K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$236K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $90K | $88K | $97K | $104K | $110K | $115K | $121K | $144K | $152K | $169K | $174K | $176K | $180K | $178K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | +9.4% | +8.0% | +5.2% | +4.5% | +5.2% | +19.2% | +5.6% | +11.1% | +3.0% | +1.0% | +2.5% | -1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $146K | $146K | $143K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $216K | $232K | $236K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$146K to $216K
39.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$143K to $236K
52.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheektowaga · Buffalo · (Tract 101.3) | $172K | $178K | +3.4% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010600) | $175K | $202K | +15.4% | |
| Eggertsville | $174K | $199K | +14.4% | |
| Lackawanna | $176K | $198K | +12.4% | |
| Cheektowaga (Tract 010202) | $173K | $190K | +9.6% | |
| Highland-on-the-Lake | $174K | $186K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheektowaga · Buffalo · (Tract 101.3) | $172K | $178K | +3.4% | |
| Amherst | $387K | $466K | +20.5% | |
| Cheektowaga | $160K | $191K | +19.6% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 002502) | $216K | $257K | +19.2% | |
| Angola | $169K | $201K | +19.1% | |
| Buffalo (Tract 007104) | $118K | $140K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheektowaga · Buffalo · (Tract 101.3) | $172K | $178K | $93K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 004402) | $68K | $74K | $41K | |
| Lackawanna | $81K | $80K | $39K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 017000) | $70K | $77K | $36K | |
| Buffalo (Tract 001601) | $56K | $58K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.