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Erie, NY · ZIP 14043 · Census Tract 36029009701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$215K
Downside (P10)
$169K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$225K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$342K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $111K | $115K | $117K | $123K | $127K | $130K | $137K | $167K | $190K | $208K | $215K | $208K | $232K | $225K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,959 | -$100,659 | -$97,859 | -$92,559 | -$88,459 | -$84,959 | -$78,559 | -$48,759 | -$25,359 | -$7,559 | -$7,109 | +$16,379 | +$9,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.3% | -46.8% | -45.5% | -43.0% | -41.1% | -39.5% | -36.5% | -22.7% | -11.8% | -3.5% | -3.3% | +7.6% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $183K | $180K | $169K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $274K | $308K | $342K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$183K to $274K
43.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$169K to $342K
77.0% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Erie, NY · ZIP 14043 · Census Tract 36029009701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$215K
Downside (P10)
$169K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$225K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$342K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $111K | $115K | $117K | $123K | $127K | $130K | $137K | $167K | $190K | $208K | $215K | $208K | $232K | $225K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,959 | -$100,659 | -$97,859 | -$92,559 | -$88,459 | -$84,959 | -$78,559 | -$48,759 | -$25,359 | -$7,559 | -$7,109 | +$16,379 | +$9,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.3% | -46.8% | -45.5% | -43.0% | -41.1% | -39.5% | -36.5% | -22.7% | -11.8% | -3.5% | -3.3% | +7.6% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $183K | $180K | $169K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $274K | $308K | $342K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$183K to $274K
43.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$169K to $342K
77.0% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
