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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Manhattan, NY · ZIP 10002 · Census Tract 36061001600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$696K
Downside (P10)
$547K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$758K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+62% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.2M | $712K | $668K | $676K | $676K | $670K | $696K | $727K | $725K | $758K |
| YoY Change | +34.6% | +4.1% | -25.4% | -40.7% | -6.2% | +1.2% | -0.1% | -0.9% | +3.8% | +4.6% | -0.4% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $603K | $570K | $547K | ||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $907K | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$603K to $907K
41.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$547K to $1.13M
76.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower East Side · 10002 · (Tract 16) | $679K | $758K | +11.7% | |
| East Village | $700K | $829K | +18.5% | |
| Inwood | $696K | $752K | +8.1% | |
| East Harlem (Tract 018800) | $696K | $743K | +6.8% | |
| East Harlem (Tract 018000) | $701K | $733K | +4.5% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $703K | $729K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower East Side · 10002 · (Tract 16) | $679K | $758K | +11.7% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Midtown East | $728K | $896K | +23.1% | |
| Upper West Side | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Gramercy | $1.11M | $1.33M | +20.4% | |
| West Village | $1.43M | $1.71M | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower East Side · 10002 · (Tract 16) | $679K | $758K | $578K | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | $218K | |
| Fort George | $113K | $125K | $72K | |
| Chelsea | $140K | $155K | $68K | |
| Upper West Side | $101K | $110K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.