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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11040 · Census Tract 36059303101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$842K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.12M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $806K | $821K | $835K | $841K | $847K | $848K | $871K | $960K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$245,603 | -$230,303 | -$216,503 | -$210,703 | -$204,703 | -$203,903 | -$180,503 | -$91,403 | +$8,297 | +$6,297 | +$64,744 | +$92,136 | +$65,029 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.4% | -21.9% | -20.6% | -20.0% | -19.5% | -19.4% | -17.2% | -8.7% | +0.8% | +0.6% | +6.2% | +8.8% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $933K | $870K | $842K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$933K to $1.4M
40.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$842K to $1.5M
59.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| East Williston | $1.09M | $1.28M | +17.2% | |
| Port Washington (Tract 301400) | $1.02M | $1.13M | +10.2% | |
| Port Washington (Tract 301200) | $1.07M | $1.18M | +10.1% | |
| Garden City | $1.02M | $1.11M | +9.0% | |
| Great Neck | $1.06M | $1.09M | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | $664K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Nassau, NY · ZIP 11040 · Census Tract 36059303101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$842K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.12M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $806K | $821K | $835K | $841K | $847K | $848K | $871K | $960K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$245,603 | -$230,303 | -$216,503 | -$210,703 | -$204,703 | -$203,903 | -$180,503 | -$91,403 | +$8,297 | +$6,297 | +$64,744 | +$92,136 | +$65,029 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.4% | -21.9% | -20.6% | -20.0% | -19.5% | -19.4% | -17.2% | -8.7% | +0.8% | +0.6% | +6.2% | +8.8% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $933K | $870K | $842K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$933K to $1.4M
40.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$842K to $1.5M
59.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| East Williston | $1.09M | $1.28M | +17.2% | |
| Port Washington (Tract 301400) | $1.02M | $1.13M | +10.2% | |
| Port Washington (Tract 301200) | $1.07M | $1.18M | +10.1% | |
| Garden City | $1.02M | $1.11M | +9.0% | |
| Great Neck | $1.06M | $1.09M | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | $664K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
