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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11040 · Census Tract 36059303204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$812K
Downside (P10)
$680K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$851K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $618K | $632K | $705K | $720K | $790K | $812K | $824K | $827K | $851K | $822K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$193,702 | -$180,002 | -$106,902 | -$92,002 | -$21,602 | +$12,596 | +$15,180 | +$39,274 | +$9,807 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.9% | -22.2% | -13.2% | -11.3% | -2.7% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +4.8% | +1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $686K | $659K | $680K | $735K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $972K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $928K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$686K to $972K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$735K to $928K
23.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | +7.6% | |
| North New Hyde Park (Tract 302700) | $807K | $911K | +12.8% | |
| Floral Park (Tract 302600) | $803K | $904K | +12.6% | |
| North New Hyde Park (Tract 302900) | $822K | $911K | +10.8% | |
| University Gardens | $815K | $895K | +9.8% | |
| Floral Park (Tract 404400) | $804K | $845K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | +7.6% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | $528K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Nassau, NY · ZIP 11040 · Census Tract 36059303204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$812K
Downside (P10)
$680K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$851K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $618K | $632K | $705K | $720K | $790K | $812K | $824K | $827K | $851K | $822K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$193,702 | -$180,002 | -$106,902 | -$92,002 | -$21,602 | +$12,596 | +$15,180 | +$39,274 | +$9,807 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.9% | -22.2% | -13.2% | -11.3% | -2.7% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +4.8% | +1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $686K | $659K | $680K | $735K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $972K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $928K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$686K to $972K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$735K to $928K
23.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | +7.6% | |
| North New Hyde Park (Tract 302700) | $807K | $911K | +12.8% | |
| Floral Park (Tract 302600) | $803K | $904K | +12.6% | |
| North New Hyde Park (Tract 302900) | $822K | $911K | +10.8% | |
| University Gardens | $815K | $895K | +9.8% | |
| Floral Park (Tract 404400) | $804K | $845K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | +7.6% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden City Park | $791K | $851K | $528K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
